The index rose comfortably today, but underneath, the story split sharply in two. Amazon jumped more than 15% on hard evidence — 37% AWS growth — while Apple fell over 7% on guidance alone, despite beating estimates. That's the exact same pattern as yesterday's Microsoft-versus-Meta split: the market is no longer grading how well a company did, but whether that pace can be sustained next quarter. What's notable is that one driver of Apple's supply constraints is rising memory costs — meaning the memory shortage Samsung flagged just a day earlier is already bleeding into other companies' guidance. Meanwhile, the bond market keeps sounding alarms independent of equity optimism. The 30-year Treasury's longest stretch above 5% since 2007, combined with both the Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI beating expectations, keeps adding weight to the scenario that rates won't come down easily.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
USD/KRW was essentially flat today at ₩1,442.07 (-0.21), so the FX variable stayed quiet — but earnings dispersion offered an important lesson for Korean investors. Stocks with clear evidence behind their numbers, like Amazon (+15.32%), surged, while Apple fell 7.35% on guidance alone despite beating estimates. Index-tracking ETFs like QQQ (+0.65%) and SPY (+0.72%) looked calm on the surface, but a portfolio concentrated in individual names could have seen a very different outcome. Micron's -5.90% pullback, unwinding part of the prior day's spike, is also a volatility signal worth noting for anyone holding Samsung or SK Hynix.
📊 Market Overview
US stocks closed higher across the board on Friday, July 31 — the last trading day of the month. The Nasdaq Composite rose 251.67 points (+1.00%) to 25,373.85, the S&P 500 gained 52.09 points (+0.70%) to 7,489.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 276.97 points (+0.53%) to 52,485.03, locking in its fourth consecutive winning month.
The session was dominated by a stark divergence between Amazon's and Apple's earnings, both released after Thursday's close. Amazon's AWS grew 37% — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — pushing quarterly revenue above $200 billion for the first time and sending the stock up 15.32%. Apple, by contrast, beat both revenue and EPS estimates but fell 7.35% on weak fourth-quarter guidance and supply-chain concerns. Adding symbolic weight, this was Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO.
The bond market, meanwhile, remains tense. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.25%, its longest stretch above 5% (14 straight sessions) since 2007, and has now closed above 5% a record 29 times this year — the most in any calendar year since 2007. That move was reinforced by a Q2 Employment Cost Index that came in hotter than expected at 0.9% (vs. 0.8% forecast) and a July Chicago PMI of 57.6 that blew past the 55.0 consensus — both signaling that wage growth and business momentum remain firm. The CNN Fear & Greed Index stood at 39, in "Fear" territory.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Amazon's AWS grows 37% — quarterly revenue tops $200 billion for the first time Amazon reported Q2 revenue of $200.6 billion (+20% year over year), the first time quarterly revenue has crossed $200 billion. Operating income surged 43% to $27.5 billion. AWS was the centerpiece: cloud revenue grew 37% year over year (vs. 31% expected), its fastest growth in 18 quarters, with AWS operating income reaching $16.6 billion at a 39.4% margin. CEO Andy Jassy said the company's "AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion." Following the report, major banks — Goldman Sachs (to $375 from $335), JPMorgan, and Piper Sandler among them — raised their price targets, and the stock jumped 15.32% to close at $271.58.
2. Apple's final Tim Cook earnings call — a beat overshadowed by a guidance shock, -7.35% Apple reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $109.42 billion (+16% year over year, a record June-quarter figure) and EPS of $2.02 (vs. $1.89 expected), both above consensus. iPhone revenue reached $54.3 billion (+22%) and Mac revenue $10.4 billion (+29%), driven by hardware strength. The problem was guidance: Apple projected September-quarter revenue growth of 9–11%, well below the 12% analysts had modeled. CEO Tim Cook said, "We're seeing some very significant [supply] constraints currently with limited flexibility in the supply chain to remedy it," citing rising memory costs, tight channel inventory, and an approximately 2.5-percentage-point FX headwind. Still, Citi analyst Jim Suva framed it positively, calling it "a good problem" — demand outpacing supply — adding that "they could have hit even higher revenues," and JPMorgan noted the constraints were likely to defer sales rather than destroy them. The call also marked Tim Cook's last as CEO; incoming CEO John Ternus, currently SVP of Hardware Engineering, will take over on September 1 and will lead future earnings calls.
3. Oil surges — a shortened Russia sanctions deadline and tankers rerouting through Hormuz WTI crude jumped 3.84% to $86.80 a barrel. Renewed geopolitical risk followed President Trump's announcement of a shortened sanctions deadline for Russia, compounded by reports of tankers reversing course in the Strait of Hormuz. A larger-than-expected 7.2-million-barrel drawdown in US crude inventories added further upward pressure. WTI is up more than 20% for the month of July — a sharp reversal from just four days earlier (7/27), when a US–Iran ceasefire report had sent oil tumbling.
4. The 30-year Treasury hits 5.25% — its longest run above 5% since 2007, as macro data stays firm The 30-year Treasury yield climbed toward 5.25%, its highest level since 2007. It has now closed above 5% for 14 consecutive sessions — the longest such streak since July 2007 — and has crossed 5% 29 times this year, the most of any calendar year since 2007. The day's Q2 Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% quarter over quarter, above the 0.8% forecast, while July's Chicago PMI came in at 57.6, beating both the 55.0 consensus and June's 56.7. Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said a September rate change was "still possible" and that rates were "likely to stay elevated for a while," adding that "today's meeting supports maintaining a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook."
5. Micron falls 5.90% — unwinding part of yesterday's 18% surge as supply-demand balance concerns resurface Micron closed at $823.03, down 5.90%, giving back part of Thursday's 18.36% spike. Worries resurfaced that competitors' faster-than-expected yield improvements could shift the memory market from a supply deficit to balance by late 2026. Recent candles showing large bearish bodies with little lower wick led some to argue the selling reflects genuine repositioning rather than simple profit-taking — a sign the market is still working out whether monetization can keep pace with AI capex.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | +3.29% | Amazon's +15.32% surge pulled the whole sector higher |
| Communication Services | +1.56% | Alphabet's +6.73% strength |
| Energy | +1.00% | Benefited from WTI's +3.84% surge |
| Industrials | +0.81% | Rotation inflow on strong economic data (Chicago PMI) |
| Semiconductors | +0.30% | Micron's drop offset by strength elsewhere |
| Financials | -0.11% | Roughly flat despite the long-yield spike |
| Technology | -0.22% | Apple's -7.35% weighed on the whole sector |
| Consumer Staples | -0.49% | Defensive rotation unwound as risk appetite held |
| Real Estate | -0.51% | Rate-sensitive weakness on the 30-year hitting 5.25% |
| Health Care | -0.59% | Weakness in individual names such as AbbVie (-2.51%) |
| Utilities | -0.69% | Hit directly by rising long-end yields |
| Materials | -2.34% | Clear sector-specific weakness |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: 649.19 (-0.12%), closed roughly flat
- Dollar Index (DXY): 99.80 (-0.21%), holding below 100
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.74% (+1.76%), highest since January 2025
- WTI Crude: $86.80 per barrel (+3.84%), up more than 20% for July
- Gold: $4,098.60 per ounce (-0.04%), roughly flat
- VIX: 15.99 (-6.44%), holding in a low-volatility range
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $108.37, down 3.41%. That's roughly 28% below its $150 June IPO price and more than half off its all-time high of $225.64. The stock struggled even after news on July 29 that the US Space Force had awarded it two task orders worth a combined $1.6 billion to launch 18 Falcon 9 rockets carrying military satellites. Investor caution is building ahead of its first quarterly earnings report on August 4, followed two days later by a major lockup expiration on August 6 that will free roughly 911.5 million shares — about $116 billion worth, or 20% of outstanding shares. Short interest has climbed to 219.3 million shares, roughly 34% of the public float, up sharply from 23.3 million in mid-June.
⚠️ Investor Considerations
At the index level, today looked smooth — but underneath, dispersion between individual names was extreme. A single stock, Amazon, generated much of the index gain, while Apple fell despite beating estimates. In a market like this, the index's direction can diverge sharply from what's happening at the stock and sector level, so tracking the index alone isn't enough to gauge portfolio risk. The more fundamental concern is the bond market. The 30-year Treasury's longest and most frequent stretch above 5% since 2007 suggests "higher rates" may be becoming the new normal. Layered on top, the stronger-than-expected Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI suggest inflationary pressure may not ease easily. Investors with heavy exposure to high-multiple growth stocks, real estate, or utilities — all rate-sensitive — should watch this trend closely.
👁 What to Watch Next Session
- Confirming the Nasdaq holds 25,000: After a six-session slide, it has now rebounded for two straight days to close at 25,373.85; whether it holds this level on the first trading day of August (Monday, 8/3) will help determine how much to trust the rebound.
- Whether Apple defends $300: It closed at $308.91, nearing the psychological $300 support. If guidance concerns intensify further, this level could be tested.
- Whether the 30-year breaks through 5.25–5.30%: Already at its highest since 2007, a further push through this range would likely set the tone for rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities in August.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (8/3): Given how far the Chicago PMI beat expectations, watch whether the national ISM print delivers a similar surprise or instead reveals a regional divergence.
- USD/KRW holding near ₩1,440: The rate was essentially flat at ₩1,442.07. Whether the recent sharp decline is merely pausing or set to resume will become clearer early next week.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-08-03: ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 2026-08-04: SpaceX (SPCX) first quarterly earnings report
- 2026-08-06: Partial SpaceX lockup expiration (~911.5 million shares)
- 2026-08-07: July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- 2026-09-01: John Ternus becomes Apple's new CEO
📚 Sources
- S&P 500 closes higher Friday as Amazon surges; Dow posts fourth straight winning month: Live updates — CNBC
- How major US stock indexes fared Friday 7/31/2026 — The Washington Post
- Amazon Q2 2026 earnings: AWS grows 37%, revenue tops $200B — Yahoo Finance
- Goldman Sachs raises Amazon stock price target on AWS growth — Investing.com
- Apple Q3 Revenue Sends AAPL Stock Toward $300 as Weak Outlook and China Sales Trigger Selloff — FX Leaders
- Apple has a 'good problem' with supply chain issue, Citi analyst says — AOL
- Apple earnings leave Wall Street analysts divided as company faces a series of headwinds — CNBC
- Tim Cook marks final earnings call as Apple CEO, confirms Ternus will take over calls — 9to5Mac
- Why Is WTI Crude Oil Up Today? Trump Russia Deadline Keeps Oil Above $84 — FX Leaders
- US Dollar and Treasury Market Forecast: 30–31 July 2026 — FX Premiere
- Employment Cost Index Summary — 2026 Q02 Results — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- July Chicago PMI surpasses expectations, comes in at 57.6 — CNBC
- Micron Stock Drops Despite Record AI Growth; Is $725 the Next Big Test? — FX Leaders
- SpaceX lock-up expiry could release $116 billion worth of shares — Yahoo Finance
- Short sellers pile into SpaceX ahead of earnings, lockup expiration — Investing.com