📊 Market Overview

US stocks staged a powerful rebound on Thursday, July 30, recovering more than half of the prior session's plunge. The Nasdaq Composite surged 679.24 points (+2.78%) to 25,122.18, snapping a six-session losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 121.48 points (+1.66%) to close at 7,437.63, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 613.92 points (+1.19%) to 52,208.06. The reversal came immediately after the Dow's 1,153-point (-2.19%) plunge the day before — its worst session of 2026.

The driver was unmistakable. Microsoft's results, released after Wednesday's close, blew past expectations and revived confidence in the AI infrastructure investment cycle. Layered on top were Lam Research's earnings surprise and Samsung's projection that the memory supply shortage will persist into 2028 — together detonating a violent rebound in the semiconductor sector that had been battered for four straight sessions. Micron soared 18.36% in a single day, with AMD (+13.00%) and Intel (+11.30%) also posting double-digit gains. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose 8.50% and VanEck's SMH gained 6.88%.

Volatility gauges cooled sharply as well. The VIX plunged 17.28% to 17.09, unwinding much of the prior day's fear. The bond market's warning, however, remained intact. Even though the Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, the 30-year Treasury yield spiked toward 5.24% — its highest since 2007 — while the 10-year rose to 4.66%. The move followed hawkish remarks from Chair Warsh that higher rates could well be part of the solution to too-high inflation, plus three FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike. Equities cheered earnings, but bonds are still pricing tightening risk — a genuinely split market.

🔑 Key Issues

1. Microsoft posts a record single-day value gain — 43% Azure growth flipped the script Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $90.01 billion (vs. $87.62 billion expected) and adjusted EPS of $4.74 (vs. $4.24 expected), sharply beating estimates. Revenue grew 18% year over year. Azure was the centerpiece: cloud revenue grew 43% in constant currency, topping the 40.2% consensus, while total Intelligent Cloud revenue rose 32% to $39.3 billion. Management guided fiscal Q1 2027 Azure growth to 45% in constant currency. FY2027 capex guidance came in at $255–260 billion, a steep step up from the $190 billion already committed for 2026. The stock jumped 15.51%, marking the largest single-day market-cap gain in its history.

2. Meta went the other way — a big EPS miss plus capex pressure, -7.95% Meta, reporting the same evening, delivered the opposite outcome. Q2 EPS came in at $6.18 versus a $7.14 consensus, a sizable miss, with net income down 14% year over year. Revenue of $60.8 billion edged past the $60.2 billion estimate, but the market's attention was on costs. Meta raised full-year 2026 capex guidance to $135–145 billion from $125–145 billion, lifting the low end by $10 billion in a single quarter. Quarterly capital expenditures ballooned to $31.1 billion (from $8.5 billion a year earlier), shrinking free cash flow to just $784 million. The stock fell 7.95%. Both companies expanded AI capex — yet Microsoft was rewarded and Meta punished, a clear signal that the market is grading not spending itself but how fast that spending converts into revenue.

3. Semiconductors counterattack — Lam Research earnings plus Samsung's "shortage through 2028" call The chip sector recovered much of its four-day drawdown in a single session. Lam Research reported record June-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion (+15% sequentially, +30% year over year) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.82 (vs. $1.68 expected), sending the stock up 17%. Crucially, it raised its 2026 wafer fab equipment (WFE) market outlook to the low $150 billion range from $140 billion, warming sentiment across equipment and materials names. Samsung then reported a more than 250-fold jump in chip profit and projected that the 2027 supply shortage would deepen versus this year and continue into 2028 — decisive for memory names. Micron's +18.36% and SanDisk's roughly +26% surge reflect exactly that.

4. Q2 GDP slows to 1.5% while core PCE holds at 3.3% — the seeds of a stagflation worry The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an advance Q2 GDP estimate of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1 and well below the 2.1% consensus. Consumer spending, investment, and exports all rose, but a decline in government spending trimmed growth. The June PCE price index released the same morning came in at 3.7% year over year with core PCE at 3.3%, both matching expectations. The problem is the combination: growth decelerating while inflation stays entrenched well above the Fed's 2% target — a setup that justifies the long end's yield spike.

5. USD/KRW plunges — down ₩31.81 in a single session to ₩1,421.35 The won-dollar rate fell ₩31.81 (-2.19%) to ₩1,421.35. That's roughly ₩120, or 7.8%, below the ₩1,542 level of July 3 — in under a month. Broad dollar weakness contributed, with the dollar index (DXY) down 0.79% to 100.01, while Samsung's bullish memory outlook and the semiconductor rally fueled expectations of foreign inflows into Korean equities, accelerating won strength. The KOSPI rebounded more than 5% intraday on Samsung's surge.

📊 Sector Performance

Sector	Change	Key Driver
Semiconductors (SOXX)	+8.50%	Broad surge on Lam Research earnings and Samsung's shortage outlook
Technology	+5.50%	Microsoft's +15.51% pulled the whole sector higher
Industrials	+0.98%	Growth-slowdown worries offset by chip equipment strength
Consumer Discretionary	+0.70%	Amazon earnings anticipation priced in
Financials	+0.56%	Rising long rates lifted net interest margin expectations
Energy	+0.53%	Held defensive despite a slightly lower WTI
Materials	-0.19%	Rangebound with no clear catalyst
Utilities	-0.56%	Rate-sensitive weakness on the long-end yield spike
Real Estate	-1.44%	Hit directly by the 30-year breaking 5.24%
Health Care	-1.64%	Profit-taking in large caps such as Lilly (-4.55%)
Consumer Staples	-2.16%	Defensive rotation unwound as risk appetite returned
Communication Services	-2.68%	Meta's -7.95% dragged the sector down

🌍 Global Markets

• Europe STOXX 600: 649.95 (+0.77%), rising alongside US tech strength
• Dollar Index (DXY): 100.01 (-0.79%), testing the 100 line
• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.66% (+0.89%); the 30-year neared 5.24%, its highest since 2007
• WTI Crude: $83.96 per barrel (-0.59%)
• Gold: $4,162.80 per ounce (+3.17%), firm on dollar weakness and the real-rate debate
• VIX: 17.09 (-17.28%), rapidly unwinding the prior day's fear

🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update

SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $112.20, down 0.31% — weak in isolation on a day the broader market rallied nearly 3%. That leaves it roughly 30% below its $150 June debut price and nearly 50% off its all-time high of $225.64. The soft tone is attributed to caution ahead of its first quarterly earnings report scheduled for August 4, plus overhang from a lockup expiration on August 6 that could free up as much as 20% of shares. Short interest has reportedly built to around $26 billion, meaning results could trigger sharp two-way volatility.

⚠️ Investor Considerations

Today's rebound was powerful, but its character deserves a sober read. Most of the gain concentrated in a single stock — Microsoft — and the semiconductor sector, while Communication Services (-2.68%), Consumer Staples (-2.16%), and Health Care (-1.64%) actually fell. Index-level recovery and broad market health are different things. More importantly, the bond market is still telling a different story. The fact that the 30-year spiked to its highest since 2007 and three FOMC members pushed for a hike — even as the Fed held — suggests inflation re-acceleration risk is still live. The combination of 1.5% Q2 growth and core PCE stuck at 3.3% may foreshadow the trickiest macro backdrop of all over the coming months: slowing growth alongside sticky prices. Rising long-end yields specifically raise the discount rate applied to high-multiple growth stocks, so it is premature to treat today's rally as a green light for chasing.

👁 What to Watch Tomorrow

• Whether the Nasdaq holds 25,000: It closed at 25,122.18, reclaiming a psychological resistance line — but after six down sessions, holding this level for a second straight day is the minimum condition for a genuine trend change. If 25,000 fails as support, this rebound may prove to be a technical retracement.
• Reaction to Apple and Amazon earnings: Both reported after Thursday's close. AWS growth is the key line for Amazon; Services revenue and iPhone sales are the ones for Apple. Just as Microsoft and Meta split in opposite directions, these two could diverge as well, and the after-hours response should set Friday's open.
• Whether the 30-year yield clears 5.25%: Having risen to its highest since 2007, a decisive break above this level would put additional pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities. A pullback below 5.2%, conversely, would lend legitimacy to today's equity rally.
• Micron's run at $900: It closed at $874.66 after an 18.36% single-day surge. If Samsung's 2028 shortage outlook holds, there may be more room to run — but the possibility of profit-taking after an 18% day deserves equal weight.
• USD/KRW testing ₩1,400: The rate plunged to ₩1,421.35, approaching the psychological ₩1,400 support. For unhedged Korean investors, won strength translates directly into lower won-denominated returns, so it's worth checking account balances separately from headline US stock performance.

💡 Upcoming Events

• 2026-07-31: Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI), July Chicago PMI
• 2026-08-03: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 2026-08-04: SpaceX (SPCX) first quarterly earnings report
• 2026-08-06: Partial SpaceX lockup expiration
• 2026-08-07: July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

📚 Sources

• Stock market today: Nasdaq soars nearly 3%, Dow and S&P 500 rebound as Microsoft posts record 1-day value gain — Yahoo Finance
• Stock market news for July 30, 2026 — CNBC
• Microsoft Reports Strong Q4 Earnings, Driven by Azure Growth (MSFT) — GuruFocus
• Meta Shares Slump 7% After Q2 Profit Falls 14% and Capex Guidance Raised — TradingKey
• Meta's stock sinks as earnings disappoint and capex guidance balloons to $145 billion — Crypto Briefing
• AMD and Micron surge, Lam Research climbs 17% as chip stocks rip higher — CNBC
• Lam Research Soars After Record Results and Strong Outlook — TradingPedia
• Samsung sees chip shortage extending to 2028, signs long-term supply deals — Khaleej Times
• Samsung Sees Deeper Chip Shortage in 2027, KOSPI Rebounds 5% — Seoul Economic Daily
• U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3% — CNBC
• GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026 — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Micron shares climb as analysts raise targets on DRAM supply squeeze — Yahoo Finance
• SpaceX stock recovers after hitting all-time low — Yahoo Finance
• Wall Street recovers more than half of the prior day's loss as Microsoft and chip stocks rally — Baltimore Sun