Today's rally was driven by anticipation, not results. AMD and Nvidia bounced not because of strong prints, but because traders bought the dip ahead of tomorrow's Nvidia earnings. The trouble is how narrow that optimism's foundation is: Nvidia has fallen after earnings in six of its last eight quarters, so merely beating consensus won't be enough — the Q3 guidance needs to clear an extremely high bar the market has already set. Meanwhile, soft consumer confidence and new-home-sales data are flashing a real slowdown signal in U.S. consumption that shouldn't be brushed aside. The escalating tariff fight with Canada also carries the risk of reigniting inflation. With tomorrow's PCE report and Nvidia's earnings, followed two days later by Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, markets face a dense three-day stretch of catalysts that demands caution. The index itself sits near record highs, but the fundamentals underneath call for prudence more than optimism.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The won strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday, with USD/KRW falling 3.91 won to 1,381.07 — down more than 34 won from last week's 1,415 level. Korean investors holding unhedged U.S. dollar assets (often called "seohak-gaemi," or overseas retail investors) should note that this won strength can partially offset dollar-asset gains once converted back to won. Micron's (MU) 2.48% gain, extending the memory-chip tailwind, is a positive read-through for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics' semiconductor businesses — Korean retail investors reportedly bought a net $86 million of a U.S. memory-chip ETF (tracking names like Micron) over the past week, suggesting sentiment is syncing up across both markets. With Nvidia's earnings due tomorrow, investors should also brace for potential after-hours volatility.
📊 Market Overview
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. The S&P 500 rose 24.42 points (+0.32%) to close at 7,677.28, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 171.11 points (+0.66%) to finish at 26,151.30, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 160.24 points (+0.30%) to end at 53,577.40.
The rebound came a day after a chip-led tech pullback, with large-cap semiconductor names leading the advance. AMD surged 4.91% to top the day's gainers, while Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.19%, snapping a seven-session losing streak. The bounce reflects investors positioning ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, due after Wednesday's close.
The session showed clear sector rotation: Technology (XLK, +0.94%) and Communication Services (XLC, +0.77%) led gains, while Energy (XLE, -1.66%) and Consumer Staples (XLP, -1.06%) lagged, dragged down by a sharp drop in crude oil and softer-than-expected consumer sentiment data.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Nvidia earnings a day away — the whole market on edge Behind the broad semiconductor rebound was anticipation ahead of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 report, due after Wednesday's close. Wall Street expects revenue near $92 billion (+97% year over year) and EPS around $2.08. With a market cap north of $5 trillion, Nvidia's print is considered the single biggest event of this earnings season. The stock has fallen after earnings in six of its last eight quarters, so anything short of a clean beat could stoke volatility.
2. AMD jumps 4.91% on new BMO coverage BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage of AMD on Tuesday with an Outperform rating and a $550 price target. Analyst Harsh Kumar argued AMD is evolving into a full-stack AI infrastructure provider spanning GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, and full-rack systems, pointing to the Helios AI rack — seen as Nvidia's closest rival offering — which begins shipping in September with design wins already secured from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic. Raymond James separately reiterated a Strong Buy, citing a $201 billion server-CPU addressable market.
3. Canada slaps $20B in retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. — trade war escalates Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods on Tuesday, covering about 700 products including steel, dairy, appliances, and farm equipment at rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%, effective September 8. The move answers Washington's 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian imports that took effect the prior Saturday. Notably, oil — despite deep energy integration between the two economies — was left off the list. Canada also unveiled a C$7.5 billion (roughly $5.4 billion) support package for affected workers and businesses.
4. Consumer confidence and new home sales both disappoint — a slowdown signal The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4 in August, missing both the 90.2 forecast and July's revised 90.2 reading — its weakest level in seven months. The Expectations Index, which gauges the six-month outlook, plunged 5.8 points to 68.2; readings below 80 have historically preceded a recession within a year. Separately, July new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, down 10.5% from June's 678,000 and below the 620,000 forecast — the lowest level since January.
5. Merck jumps 3.84% on positive melanoma trial data Merck rose 3.84% after it and Moderna announced their Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene plus Keytruda met its primary endpoint in patients with resectable stage IIB-IV melanoma. Merck, up 45% year to date, also saw price-target hikes from Argus ($170) and Wolfe Research ($180).
6. Dick's Sporting Goods plunges 30% on an earnings shock Dick's Sporting Goods reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $3.53 (vs. $3.78 expected) on revenue of $5.59 billion (vs. $5.65 billion expected), missing on both lines. The retailer slashed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $11.00-$12.00 from a prior consensus of $14.20, sending shares down roughly 31% — their worst day since 2023 — on intensifying competition in athletic footwear and apparel and weak performance from the recently acquired Foot Locker unit (comparable sales -3.6%).
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +0.94% | Rebound in large-cap chipmakers AMD, Nvidia; earnings-season optimism |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.77% | Meta (+1.97%) strength on ad and AI-spend optimism |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.34% | Merck (+3.84%) on trial data; Gilead (+1.38%) also higher |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.21% | Falling yields boosted dividend-stock appeal |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.15% | Large banks like Goldman Sachs (+2.18%) firm |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.07% | Range-bound as rates stabilized |
| Materials (XLB) | 0.00% | Flat, lacking clear direction |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.30% | Modest weakness on consumer-sentiment concerns |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.34% | Underperformed on tariff-escalation risk |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -1.06% | Walmart (-1.04%) weak amid demand-slowdown signals |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.66% | Crude's 4.66% plunge dragged Exxon, Chevron lower |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: 656.48 (+0.35%) — a modest gain in line with the U.S., with earnings season and Jackson Hole ahead
- Dollar Index (DXY): 98.90 (-0.10%) — essentially flat, awaiting direction
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.64% (-0.07pt) — down a second straight day, a tailwind for growth stocks
- WTI Crude: $81.05/barrel (-4.66%) — sharp drop on easing supply concerns and softer demand expectations
- Gold: $4,715.70/oz (+1.61%) — safe-haven demand rose on Jackson Hole uncertainty and trade-war risk, holding near record highs
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SpaceX (SPCX) shares rose 2.19% to close at $137.95 on Tuesday. The stock remains volatile since its June IPO, with sentiment boosted by news of a partnership with Nvidia to launch a high-performance AI computing system into orbit by 2027. Political interest also rose after it emerged that President Trump had personally purchased SpaceX shares. Citi kept its price target unchanged at $200 while noting it could ratchet the target up toward $900+ over the long term as major milestones are hit.
⚠️ Investor Watch Points
This week stacks two major catalysts — Nvidia's earnings on the 26th and the Jackson Hole symposium on the 27th-29th — raising the odds of elevated volatility. Nvidia has fallen after earnings in six of its last eight quarters, so even a beat could trigger a sector-wide pullback if guidance disappoints. Escalating tariff retaliation with Canada also raises the risk of the trade dispute spreading to other partners such as the EU. With consumer confidence and new home sales both soft, further signs of an economic slowdown could weigh disproportionately on high-valuation growth names.
👁 Tomorrow's Key Watch Points
- PCE Price Index (July, 8:30 AM ET on the 26th) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; a hotter-than-expected print could dent rate-cut hopes just ahead of Jackson Hole and pressure stocks.
- Nvidia earnings (after close on the 26th) — whether the company beats consensus of ~$92B revenue and $2.08 EPS, and its Q3 guidance, will be decisive. A disappointment could test Nasdaq support around the 26,000 level.
- Salesforce (CRM) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) earnings (26th) — a read on AI subscription growth and enterprise IT spending. CRM closed down 1.61% Tuesday, suggesting some pre-earnings caution is already priced in.
- Whether the S&P 500 holds above 7,700 — a test of resistance near record highs that could set the near-term trend, especially if Nvidia's report provides a catalyst.
- Follow-through on Canada tariffs — whether Washington retaliates further or returns to the table could drive added volatility in industrials and consumer names.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-08-26: Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike report earnings; July PCE price index released
- 2026-08-27: Marvell Technology reports earnings; Jackson Hole symposium begins
- 2026-08-28: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech
- 2026-09-08: Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods take effect
📚 Sources
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as US-Canada trade tensions heat up, investors await Nvidia earnings — Yahoo Finance
- Canada unveils retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods — CNBC
- U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low in August 2026 — Yahoo Finance
- US New home sales for July 0.607M vs 0.620M estimate — InvestingLive
- BMO Capital Initiates Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Stock Coverage With $550 Target — Blockonomi
- Merck Just Gained 19% in a Month. What Would It Take to Get MRK Stock Up to $200? — 24/7 Wall St.
- Dick's Sporting Goods plunges on guidance cut, Q2 miss — Yahoo Finance
- Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole to test pillars of stock rally — Yahoo Finance
- Kevin Warsh to Make First Jackson Hole Speech as Fed Chair — Bloomberg
- Nvidia fiscal Q2 2027 earnings outlook: what to watch on August 26 — Investing.com
- Next PCE Inflation Release Date 2026: Fed Calendar — FedRateCalc
- MRVL to Post Q2 Earnings: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock? — Yahoo Finance
- Salesforce Will Report Q2 Earnings on August 26. Here's What to Expect from CRM Stock — TipRanks
- SpaceX stock rebounds, closing above $135 IPO price for first time in weeks — CNBC
- South Korean stock investors' surge into U.S. markets — CNBC
- Korean Retail Investors Pour $86 Million Into U.S. Memory-Chip ETF in a Week — Seoul Economic Daily