September PPI rose 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, the biggest jump since 2022, yet the S&P 500 gained 0.33% and the Dow 1.08%. The market reacted to where rates are heading more than to the inflation print itself. Once the 10-year fell to 5.09% and CME-implied odds of a hike slipped to about 27%, housing, retail and software moved first. Semiconductors, by contrast, stayed on a losing streak, and TSMC fell despite record profit, a sign good news is already priced in. We read the session less as the end of the AI selloff than as the market separating names that carry heavy AI funding burdens from those that do not. Gold rose 2% and oil sits near $96, so the inflation embers remain, and one day of rebound is too little to turn optimistic. We stay neutral.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The most direct variables for Korean investors are semiconductors and the exchange rate. Reports said the KOSPI plunged 7% overnight, and Japan's Nikkei fell nearly 5%. In US trading, however, Micron (MU) closed up 1.87%, so the memory names linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovered part of their losses. USD/KRW rose 1.27 won to 1,341.58 even though the dollar index fell 0.53%, meaning the won stayed weak. QQQ fell 0.13%, the 3x leveraged TQQQ 0.40%, and SPY rose 0.28%, so index moves were small, but products with heavy chip exposure swung widely intraday. Unhedged holders add currency moves to equity returns, so review leverage and currency exposure together before the FOMC.
📊 Market Overview
On October 15, 2026 (US time), US stocks closed higher after recovering intraday losses, even though September producer prices (PPI) came in far above expectations. The S&P 500 rose 25.12 points (+0.33%) to 7,744.06, and the Nasdaq Composite gained just 20.16 points (+0.08%) to 26,713.03 after falling more than 1% early on, as Treasury yields eased and erased most of the loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 556.21 points (+1.08%) to 52,177.69, the strongest of the three, and the small-cap Russell 2000 gained about 1.4%. The S&P 500, which closed at 7,718.94 the day before, confirmed support above 7,700.
QQQ fell 0.13%, the 3x leveraged TQQQ fell 0.40%, and SPY rose 0.28%. Among the 11 sectors, health care (XLV) led at +1.86%, followed by materials (+1.79%), consumer discretionary (+1.71%), communication services (+1.46%) and financials (+1.38%). Energy (XLE) fell 1.58% and technology (XLK) fell 0.65%. The index figures look calm, but underneath money moved out of semiconductors and AI infrastructure into software, health care and value areas such as housing and retail.
🔑 Key Issues
1. September PPI jumps 1.3%, yet yields fall September PPI rose 1.3% month over month, more than double the 0.6% forecast and an acceleration from August (+0.5%) and July (+0.2%). Year over year it rose 6.3% against the 5.5% forecast, the largest gain since 2022. Excluding food, energy and trade margins, prices rose 0.5% on the month and 5% on the year. Gasoline jumped 20.3%, and war-related energy prices pushed the figure up sharply. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.09% and the 30-year dropped about 10 bp to roughly 5.43%, reversing the rise that followed the previous day's CPI. CME FedWatch put the odds of a rate hike at about 27%, down more than 6 points from Wednesday. The market chose to read the data as bad news already priced in.
2. AI infrastructure financing worries; semiconductors stay weak The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2%. During the session Yahoo Finance said it was heading for its longest losing streak since October 2008. One tally showed six AI infrastructure suppliers lost about $94 billion in market value since October 6, including more than $23 billion on the day. Intel (INTC) fell 2.80%, Nvidia (NVDA) 1.84%, AMD 1.50% and Broadcom (AVGO) 0.55%. Intraday, Vertiv fell more than 6% and Sandisk nearly 6%. Baird technology strategist Ted Mortonson said the Street is tiring of the 'Bank of Nvidia, Bank of AMD and Bank of Broadcom,' explaining that selling is increasingly about who needs financing and what it costs. CoreWeave, which plunged 15% the day before, rebounded intraday after reports that its credit default swaps hit a record, implying roughly 60% odds of default within five years.
3. TSMC falls despite record profit TSMC posted a record profit and beat estimates, yet its US-listed shares fell nearly 4% early and ended about 2% lower. Selling on good earnings signals that AI chip expectations are already heavily priced in. Rocket Lab pushed the debut of its Neutron rocket into 2027 and fell by double digits. Asia took a bigger hit: reports said the KOSPI plunged 7% overnight and Japan's Nikkei fell nearly 5%. Within US chips, however, Micron (MU) rose 1.87%, ARM 2.85% and Qualcomm (QCOM) 3.35%, so performance diverged by name.
4. Software rebounds; ServiceNow +6.14% ServiceNow (NOW) rose 6.14%, Salesforce (CRM) 4.57%, Adobe (ADBE) 4.57% and Oracle (ORCL) 3.00%, leading a software rebound. One reading is that money moved from companies building AI data centers with debt into enterprise software. ServiceNow also drew attention for an update to its EmployeeWorks product, which lets employees build AI agents without code, and for a TD Cowen price-target increase; it reports Q3 results after the close on October 28. Given that Oracle fell 8.83% the day before, one day of recovery is hard to call a trend reversal.
5. Rotation into value, housing and consumer names Home Depot (HD) rose 4.31%, leading housing-related stocks. Homebuilder Lennar gained more than 5% on hopes of lower mortgage rates but is still down about 25% this year. Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 3.55%, Thermo Fisher (TMO) 3.46%, UnitedHealth (UNH) 2.79%, Walmart (WMT) 1.47% and McDonald's (MCD) 1.76%. Nike and Lululemon each bounced about 5%, though both are far down for the year, so the move looks largely technical. Apple (AAPL) slipped 0.28%, and reports said its market cap briefly topped $5 trillion again intraday. Caterpillar (CAT) fell 1.78%, lagging within industrials.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | +1.86% | LLY +3.55%, TMO +3.46%, UNH +2.79% |
| Materials | +1.79% | Lower yields and weaker dollar |
| Consumer Discretionary | +1.71% | HD +4.31%; housing and retail rebound |
| Communication Services | +1.46% | Alphabet +0.45%, software rebound spillover |
| Financials | +1.38% | GS +1.43%, WFC +2.29%, AXP +2.25% |
| Real Estate | +1.21% | Lower long-term yields |
| Consumer Staples | +0.72% | WMT +1.47%, KO +0.24% |
| Industrials | +0.51% | BA +2.20%, CAT -1.78% mixed |
| Utilities | -0.17% | Roughly flat |
| Technology | -0.65% | NVDA, AMD, INTC weak; software strong |
| Energy | -1.58% | XOM -1.32%, CVX -1.22% |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: Rose 0.38% to 640.16.
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Fell 0.53% to 102.01, reflecting lower yields and fading hike expectations.
- 10-year US Treasury yield: Fell 0.10 pt to 5.09%.
- WTI crude: Rose 1.08% to $96.12 a barrel, even as energy stocks fell.
- Gold: Rose 2.06% to $4,192.50 an ounce on a softer dollar and inflation worries.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX fell 2.33% to $148.62, its third straight decline after -4.21% on October 13 and -2.80% on October 14. It fell even as the S&P 500 rose, suggesting weaker sentiment toward growth stocks rather than a market-wide effect. We found no SpaceX-specific news behind the drop. Rocket Lab's decision to delay Neutron to 2027 may have weighed on space-sector sentiment, but that link is unconfirmed.
⚠️ Investor Cautions
Today's gain came from lower yields, not from inflation worries fading. With PPI up by the most since 2022, the rate path can flip again ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC. Credit risk in AI infrastructure has become visible, with CoreWeave's CDS reportedly at a record, and with the semiconductor index on a losing streak, calling a dip safe to buy would be premature. The rotation into software and health care moved quickly and can reverse just as quickly, so chasing is risky. Gold and oil rising together also signal persistent inflation pressure. This is not investment advice; final decisions and responsibility rest with the investor.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- Whether the S&P 500 holds 7,700: It closed at 7,744.06, above that line. A break could extend the pullback from the October 9 record area (7,811.54) beyond 2%; an attempt to retake 7,811.54 would confirm the rebound.
- Whether the 10-year holds near 5.09%: A move back above 5.2% would weaken the case for today's rebound. A drop below 5% would add support for growth and housing stocks.
- Whether the semiconductor index's losing streak ends: After TSMC sold off on strong results, doubt any bounce's staying power. Watch whether more names close higher, as Micron did.
- AI credit gauges: Whether CoreWeave's bond yield and CDS stabilize and Oracle holds the $130 area will steer tech sentiment.
- Next week's earnings calendar: Netflix reports October 20 (expected EPS $0.82, after the close), then ServiceNow on October 28, the same day as the FOMC decision. See whether the software rebound carries into earnings expectations.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-10-20: Netflix (NFLX) earnings expected (after the close, per some calendars)
- 2026-10-27–28: FOMC meeting (rate decision 2:00 p.m. ET on the 28th)
- 2026-10-28: ServiceNow (NOW) Q3 earnings expected (after the close)
📚 Sources
- Producer Price Inflation Was Much Hotter Than Expected. Stocks Still Climbed. — IBTimes
- Stock market today: Dow jumps, S&P 500, Nasdaq gain as AI jitters fade — Yahoo Finance
- Dow Jumps 556, Nasdaq Adds 20, S&P 500 Rises 25 — TV News Check
- ServiceNow Stock Surges as Investors Shift to Legacy Tech — Benzinga