This week in one sentence: bonds screamed, but stocks held on. The 10-year yield hit 5.18%, its highest since the financial crisis, and mortgage rates jumped 30 basis points in a week, yet all three major indexes finished with weekly gains. The support came from "AI that makes money." Microsoft rose 3.7% after reshaping Copilot into an enterprise super app and launching Autopilot, a usage-priced agent, while Qualcomm removed a key uncertainty by extending its patent license with Apple. Meta, which had surged 13% on the week, slipped more than 3% after Goldman Sachs noted hyperscalers need about $300 billion a year in AI revenue just to break even on their investment. The market still loves AI, but it has started asking for the bill. Next week's PCE and jobs report will test how much strength the market has in a 5%-yield world.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The won strengthened to 1,355.28 per dollar, down 7.22 won from the prior day, as falling oil prices and a softer dollar index (-0.25%) pulled USD/KRW back into the 1,350s. Popular ETFs among Korean retail investors rose — QQQ (+0.46%), SPY (+0.54%) and 3x-leveraged TQQQ (+1.30%) — but for unhedged investors the roughly 0.5% currency drag wiped out most of the gain, leaving QQQ nearly flat in won terms. Among Korea-linked names, Micron edged up 0.16%. Micron's earnings next Wednesday (consensus EPS $31.45, revenue $50.8 billion) will be a key gauge of the HBM and memory cycle for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Qualcomm's extended Apple deal may also ease nerves across the mobile-chip supply chain.
📊 Market Overview
The three major US indexes all rose on Friday, September 25, to close out the week. The S&P 500 gained 39.28 points (+0.51%) to 7,743.41, the Nasdaq Composite rose 129.35 points (+0.48%) to 27,068.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 478.64 points (+0.93%) to 51,828.62. The Dow snapped a three-session losing streak, and all three indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow also broke a three-week losing run.
The bond market was the main character this week. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.18%, its highest since the global financial crisis, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 30 basis points in a week to 7.49%. Stocks were still able to rise on Friday because oil fell more than 2% on hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI slid 2.29% to $92.44 a barrel, and Brent dropped below $98. With oil taking a breather, inflation worries eased somewhat and buyers returned to equities.
Microsoft (+3.66%) and Qualcomm (+3.97%) led a tech rebound, while industrials such as GE Aerospace (+2.29%) and Caterpillar (+2.03%) powered the Dow. Meta (-3.33%), which surged this week on its Muse AI agent, and Intel (-3.45%), up more than 200% year to date, fell on profit-taking. The VIX dropped 5.11% to 14.87, and CNN's Fear & Greed Index improved slightly into the high 30s but remained in "Fear" territory.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Microsoft +3.66%: Copilot reshaped into an enterprise-only super app Microsoft overhauled Copilot into a unified enterprise app combining chat, Office productivity tools, natural-language code generation and Autopilot, an always-on autonomous agent. Autopilot is an upgraded version of the Scout agent unveiled in June and enters private preview at the end of the month. CEO Satya Nadella stressed that "trust is going to be the biggest issue for us." The move effectively cedes the consumer AI market to rivals in favor of an enterprise focus. Oppenheimer raised its price target from $515 to $570, following Stifel's upgrade from Hold to Buy on September 23. Shares closed at $516.17, near a 10-month high.
2. Qualcomm +3.97%: Global patent license with Apple renewed Qualcomm announced it has renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple, effective April 1, 2027. The stock had wobbled on concerns that Apple's in-house modem would reduce reliance on Qualcomm, but confirmation that licensing revenue will continue reversed the selling. Compared with a roughly 1% gain in the semiconductor ETF (SMH), the move was clearly Qualcomm-specific. Shares reclaimed the $200 level, closing at $201.97.
3. Meta -3.33%: Goldman's warning on recouping AI investment Meta, which surged nearly 13% this week on the Muse AI agent launch and Connect 2026, fell 3.33% on Friday to $751.66. Goldman Sachs estimates hyperscaler capex will reach $800 billion this year and noted that roughly $300 billion in annual AI service revenue is needed just to break even on investments already made. Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala's view that Muse's ability to connect bank accounts and offer personalized financial recommendations could pressure bank margins also drew attention. Communication Services (-0.90%) was the worst of the 11 sectors.
4. Intel -3.45%: Profit-taking after a 223% year-to-date surge Intel rose as high as $129.21 intraday before sliding 3.45% to $123.00. Given its 223% gain since the start of the year, the drop looked more like profit-taking than a reaction to bad news. Apple telling developers it may drop support for Intel-based Macs in Mac App Store apps requiring macOS 13 or later also weighed on sentiment. Software stocks were weak as well, with Salesforce (-1.76%), Oracle (-1.75%), ServiceNow (-1.57%) and Adobe (-1.45%) all lower.
5. Economic data: Durable goods "flat but better" vs. consumer sentiment at a 4-month low August durable goods orders came in at $338.6 billion, unchanged (0.0%) from the prior month and better than the -0.4% expected. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%, showing underlying manufacturing demand is holding up. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, however, fell to 48.1 from 51.7 in August, a four-month low. Director Joanne Hsu said the short-run outlook for business conditions "plunged" amid worries about elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes. Gasoline near $4.50 a gallon is weighing on consumers. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi summit ended with few policy outcomes, but the two sides agreed to hold an AI summit in Shenzhen in November.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.95% | GE Aerospace +2.29%, Caterpillar +2.03%, 3M +1.21% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.80% | Microsoft +3.66%, Qualcomm +3.97%, Apple +1.53% |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.57% | JPMorgan +1.33%, Goldman Sachs +1.32%, Bank of America +1.20% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.49% | Amgen +2.11%, Gilead +0.83% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.44% | P&G +0.38%, Walmart +0.36% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.38% | NextEra +0.61% |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.24% | Slight tailwind from a weaker dollar |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.22% | Amazon +0.12% vs. Tesla -1.54%; Nike downgraded by BofA |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.22% | Mortgage rates at 7.49%, long-end yield pressure |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.89% | WTI -2.29%, ConocoPhillips -1.58%, Exxon Mobil -0.96% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.90% | Profit-taking in Meta (-3.33%) |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: 638.65 (+0.35%). Edged higher on lower oil and hopes for a US rebound.
- Dollar Index (DXY): 101.04 (-0.25%). The dollar weakened as the oil slide eased inflation worries.
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.18% (+0.02pp). Held at its highest level since the financial crisis. A gauge of bond market volatility surged 30% this week, its biggest weekly jump since April 2025.
- WTI Crude: $92.44/bbl (-2.29%). Fell back after two days on hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Brent also slipped below $98.
- Gold: $4,320.50/oz (+0.52%). Rebounded slightly on a softer dollar.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX rose 0.44% to $148.68. It traded between $146.00 and $149.80, consolidating around $148 for a second day. The sharp selloff earlier in the week on a major shareholder's stake sale and lock-up expiry has calmed, but the stock failed to reclaim $150. No new launch or major contract news was identified for the day. The average Wall Street price target of about $222 is far above the current price, but range-bound trading is likely to continue until the post-IPO supply overhang clears.
⚠️ Investor Caution
A weekly gain does not mean rate pressure has gone away. A 5.18% 10-year yield and 7.49% 30-year mortgage rate keep eroding the relative appeal of equities, and Baird strategist Ross Mayfield warned that big moves in the bond market will weigh on stocks "for the near term and the long term." As Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon noted, oil is currently setting the direction for both stocks and bonds, so Friday's bounce could easily reverse if Hormuz talks fall apart.
AI stocks are also diverging sharply between "AI that makes money" and "AI that spends money." Names that surged in a short period, like Meta, can swing sharply on a single debate over investment payback, and stocks with triple-digit year-to-date gains, like Intel, face constant profit-taking pressure. Consumer sentiment falling to a four-month low could foreshadow slower spending, so exposure to cyclical consumer names is worth reviewing.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- Can the S&P 500 break 7,750? — Having held 7,700 for two straight days, a move above 7,750 would set up another run at the prior high. If yields jump again, 7,700 is first support and 7,650 second. For the Nasdaq, watch whether it can settle above 27,000.
- Will the 10-year break 5.2%? — The 10-year swung between 5.1% and 5.2% all week. A break above 5.2% could rattle rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities and richly valued tech; a drop below 5.1% would leave room for a growth-stock rebound.
- Tuesday's JOLTS and Conference Board consumer confidence — With the Michigan index at a four-month low, a weak Conference Board reading would strengthen the "consumer slowdown" scenario. More job openings than expected could strengthen October hike bets.
- Wednesday's August PCE and Micron earnings — PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected headline reading reflecting the oil spike would add upward pressure on yields. Micron's results after the close the same day (consensus EPS $31.45) will be a thermometer for the AI memory cycle.
- Can WTI hold $90? — If progress in Hormuz talks pushes WTI below $90, bond yields and inflation worries could ease together. News of a breakdown could send it back above $95.
💡 Upcoming Events
- Sep 29 (Tue): August JOLTS job openings; September Conference Board consumer confidence
- Sep 30 (Wed): September ADP employment; August PCE price index; Q2 GDP (third estimate); Micron (MU) earnings
- Oct 1 (Thu): ISM manufacturing index; Nike (NKE) earnings
- Oct 2 (Fri): September jobs report (100K expected vs. 162K prior; unemployment seen at 4.2%)
- November: US-China AI summit in Shenzhen
📚 Sources
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch weekly wins as market shrugs off bond sell-off, oil prices ease — Yahoo Finance
- Stock market news for Sept. 25, 2026 — CNBC
- The bond market is having a wild month. Oil is making things even worse — CNN Business
- Microsoft Climbs 4% as Oppenheimer Lifts Target to $570 on Copilot Enterprise Pivot — 24/7 Wall St.
- Why is Microsoft stock rallying 4% today? — Invezz
- Qualcomm Rallies 6% as Buyers Reverse Apple Renewal Selloff — AOL
- Why Meta Platforms Stock Reversed Today — The Motley Fool
- Intel Drops 3% as Profit Taking Follows 223% YTD Run — 24/7 Wall St.
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Unchanged In August — RTTNews
- The Week Ahead: US PCE, jobs report, Micron earnings — CMC Markets